Prize scam losses nearly doubled in a year while Canada's halved

Why this case matters

Two countries, two datasets, one conclusion: the prize scam is reaching fewer people and taking more from each of them.

In Canada the pattern is stark. Reports fell by roughly three quarters between 2021 and 2025, and victims fell with them — but annual losses stayed almost exactly flat, hovering around C$4.5 million every year. Loss per victim went from about C$13,600 to about C$39,000.

In the United States, losses nearly doubled in a single year, on a complaint count that rose by about half. Same direction, different starting point.

What that probably means

Prize scams are the most widely publicised fraud in existence. Everybody has heard the joke about the Nigerian lottery. That publicity plausibly works on the people it can reach — the ones who now delete the email — and the population left is the one that publicity does not reach: people who are isolated, cognitively vulnerable, or already on a resold list of previous responders.

Which suggests the remaining harm is concentrated among people who are unlikely to be helped by another awareness campaign.

Reading it honestly

Both are reported-loss series and both are floors. Prize scams are especially likely to be under-reported, because the story is one people find embarrassing in a way that, say, a hacked account is not.

The US complaint rise in 2025 also has a possible mechanical explanation: the FBI’s victim notification work has been contacting people who did not know they were being defrauded, which pushes reporting up. That does not explain a 90% rise in dollars.

What it tells you about the scheme

If you are worried about an older relative, the useful question is not whether they would fall for an obvious prize email. It is whether they have paid a fee towards something they won. That is the only step that matters, and it is the one thing everyone agrees on: a legitimate prize never requires a payment.